New York, NY - September 8, 2022 - RealtyQuant, issuer of the U.S. most comprehensive real estate market valuations data, performed a study of 395 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) estimating over-, under-, fair valuation of their housing markets, relative to fundamentals of income, population and housing supply. Some summary observations:
A total of 25 MSAs are greater than 40% overvalued, with nearly 60% of all MSAs studied at above 10% overvaluation.
Around 28% of all MSAs studied are in the 0% to 10% fairly valued range
Just under 12% of all MSAs studied are undervalued, a percentage lower than ahead of the Global Financial Crisis.
Top 10 Most Overvalued U.S. Metropolitan Area Housing Markets:
At Q2 2022, Boise City, Idaho is the most overvalued metropolitan statistical area in the U.S. Three other Idaho metropolitan areas, namely Coeur d'Alene, Idaho Falls and Twin Falls are in the most overvalued list. The list includes two Florida MSAs, namely Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater and Cape Coral-Fort Myers. The metropolitan areas containing Austin, Phoenix, Spokane, and Ogden complete the list.
Percentage overvaluation accelerated since Q4 2020 and Q3 2021, when just one and four of the above MSAs, respectively, were > 40% overvalued.
Predicted peak-to-bottom price declines for the top 10 most overvalued MSAs under a mild recession scenario, comparable to 1990 recession, are in the 12% to 19% range. Predicted declines under a severe recession scenario, comparable to the Global Financial Crisis, are in the 32% to 50% range.
Top 10 Most Undervalued U.S. Metropolitan Area Housing Markets:
At Q2 2022, Binghamton, New York is the most undervalued metropolitan statistical area in the U.S. Metropolitan areas in Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Maryland, New York, Illinois, North Dakota complete the list.
Undervalued percentages reduced since Q4 2020 and Q3 2021, when nine of the above MSAs, were > 10% undervalued, vs. just two MSAs in the same valuation range at Q2 2022.
Predicted peak-to-bottom price declines for the top 10 most undervalued MSAs under a mild recession scenario, are in the 1% to 2% range vs. 4% to 5% under a severe recession scenario.
RealtyQuant's market valuations data is issued quarterly covering ~2700 U.S. counties, the next update as of Q3 2022 to be released end-December 2022. Subscribe for quarterly data updates.
Market valuations were back tested against price declines post two recessions, namely 1990 and the Global Financial Crisis, as discussed in the following article: Housing Market Valuations in U.S. Metro Areas: A Back Study for Downside Risk after Two Recessions.
Data for the study above comes from Federal Housing Finance Agency and Bureau of Economic Analysis. The study is based on relatively smooth, governmental quarterly price data by Federal Housing Finance Agency, which historically exhibited less volatility compared to both Case-Schiller and Zillow prices.
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